Author: Erik Kaiser

Southern California’s housing market continues to show remarkable steadiness, even as 30-year mortgage rates climbed into the low-7% range by October 1—up from the mid-6% range at the end of summer. I’ve seen firsthand how these rate shifts are shaping real decisions for families and individuals across our communities, especially those navigating the sale of a loved one’s home or relocating for life’s next chapter.

Single-family home prices have held strong in this climate, while the condominium market has felt more pressure. Rising insurance premiums, larger reserve funding requirements, and new balcony repair mandates have all contributed to higher HOA fees; some buildings are even implementing special assessments. These added costs are making an impact on buyers’ purchasing power and, in turn, making it even more crucial for sellers to approach pricing and negotiations with openness and realism.

As we move through this quarter, my advice—especially for executors, trustees, and families navigating probate or trust sales—is to focus on your specific needs, recent neighborhood sales, and the current inventory, rather than broad national headlines. Each situation is unique, and a calm, well-informed perspective goes a long way in reaching the right outcome.

As we moved through late Q3, Los Angeles County home prices reached a period of equilibrium—holding mostly steady or showing only slight increases compared to last year. After several years of pronounced jumps, the market is now leveling, not surging, and that’s something I’m seeing firsthand in neighborhoods across the county. Median listing prices hovered around $950,000 by late Q3, reflecting a modest ~5% decline year over year. It’s also notable that more sellers are adjusting their expectations, with price reductions becoming more frequent—about 37% of condo listings had price cuts in early Q4, marking a new record in some datasets. For families managing a probate or trust sale, these shifts can add another layer of complexity to an already challenging process. Active listings climbed to roughly 15,400, up about 4% from last year, meaning inventory is expanding but not flooding the market. With higher mortgage rates continuing to impact affordability, we’re seeing sales remain mixed and pricing strategies evolve. In this environment, steady guidance and attention to detail matter more than ever, especially when representing executors and trustees who need clarity and support at each step.

Navigating Late-Q3’s shifting real estate terrain, it’s clear that flexibility is key—especially for those managing properties on behalf of estates or trusts. About one in five listings nationwide saw price cuts, as sellers chose to stay the course and recalibrate rather than exit the market (with fewer than 6% delisted). Interest rates told their own story: the conforming 30-year fixed started in the high 6% range and climbed above 7% mid-month, continuing upward. By quarter’s end, active inventory reached over 1.16 million homes, and the median listing price eased about 1% month-over-month to $419,300. This gave buyers a bit more room to negotiate, even as new listings slipped by around 2% to 395,000. Economists noted that higher borrowing costs kept many from fully capitalizing on increased leverage.

As someone who supports families through probate and trust sales, I pay close attention to how these trends may affect both timelines and expectations. With market watchers eyeing early Q4 for possible deeper discounts and longer selling times, it’s more important than ever for executors and trustees to have clear guidance and a steady hand throughout the process.

Mortgage rates continue to defy expectations, holding near 7% as we approach year-end. For families and individuals navigating significant life transitions—especially those managing probate or trust sales—this persistent rate environment adds another layer of complexity to already sensitive decisions. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, and the possibility of a further Fed rate hike on the horizon, borrowing costs could edge even higher. The spread in mortgage-backed securities is also creating additional upward pressure. Meaningful rate relief isn’t likely without a sustained improvement in inflation, steadier long-term yields, and more supportive signals from the Fed. For now, it’s wise to treat current mortgage rates as the baseline for any planning—whether you’re preparing to sell, considering an investment, or exploring refinancing. Any future drop in rates should be seen as a bonus, not a guarantee. I always aim to guide families and fiduciaries through these shifting conditions with clarity and experience, so you can make decisions with confidence, no matter what the market brings.

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Indigenous Peoples’ Day celebrates, recognizes, and honors the beautiful traditions and cultures of the Indigenous People
We take a stand for and support the indigenous people on this day.
We should also offer our support to those who invest and uplift the indigenous communities.